Coming off a very volatile week, the FOMC meets on Wednesday. The rates market has priced out a hike at this meeting, which coincides with the AI trade sell-off and next week's midterm elections.
Wednesday evening is busy in its own right: Alphabet and Microsoft both report after the close, with Amazon the day after. Eyes will be on capital expenditure and the growth of their cloud arms to see whether AI spending has been justified by return on capital or revenue growth.
Yields have meanwhile fallen over the past week, which may keep equities supported. The 10-year fell 19bp on Thursday, its largest one-day drop since March 2023, as money left AI-linked credit for Treasuries. Oil took over on Friday after attacks on Saudi airports and energy sites, while gold closed below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July.
The sections below are only viewable to Multi-model Signals & Research subscribers. Unlock today with a 1-month free trial.
To explore our Commodities Systematic Portfolio and Multi-model Signals, read more via the links below.
Claim a 34% discount on the Commodities service using the button below.
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.