Trump has admitted that the Iran war won’t finish until after the US midterm election (or that it will finish “immediately” after, depending on the optimism of the focus). While the actual details of the war have started fading into background noise, oil prices and yields have not.
Higher yields across the curve can pressure equity valuations and stay a headwind for risk sentiment as well as liquidity. The market feels like it wants to go up, but still needs to digest these uncomfortable changes. In the near term, I am cautious about taking big risks, but remain optimistic about the broader, positive direction towards year-end.
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Disclaimer
This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.