Hi YXI friends,
We are likely entering a period of summer slumber, when most of Wall Street is away on holiday. We can see some volatility due to thinner liquidity, but major decisions are unlikely to be made during this period.
The most awaited event for the rest of this month is the Jackson Hole - Kevin Warsh’s first. Given how tight-lipped Warsh has been on forward guidance, he is likely very much focused on the super-big-picture stuff, like the five task forces under the new Fed and how the Fed takes in market signals.
The near-term path of least resistance is a dichotomy between the long end and the front end yields, in which long-end yields continue to climb while the front end softens on rate-hike expectations.
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