The market has been unwinding a lot of war premium this week, helping an equities rally. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline after the September 13 drone shutdown, and September exports are running above 4 million barrels a day, up from 2.4 million in August. Iran has also signalled it could reopen Hormuz within a week.
Trump and Xi meet at the White House tomorrow, with tariffs, critical minerals and AI on the agenda. The US has already delayed its excess-capacity tariffs until after the summit.
The caveat is the shape of the overall market advance. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq closed at a new high while the S&P 500 and the Dow both finished lower. Semis and Meta have been the strong drivers, while financials have fallen.
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